千禧彩票网的連結:流動提高生產力

人口的遷移一直是亞洲地區歷史的一部分。在過去25年中,勞力輸入與輸出國同樣受惠於勞動力的跨國移動。而在接下來的25年中,亞洲的繁榮發展和人力資本的需求將繼續推動區域內勞動力跨國移動。

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人口移動的原因有很多。根據麥肯錫(McKinsey)2015年的一份報告1,全球2.47億移民中有90%以上是自願遷移的,剩下的多數是難民或尋求庇護者。更多的工作機會、更高的收入以及更美好的未來是人口移動主要的驅動因素。

在1960年代至70年代後期,石油產業的繁榮導致勞動力向西亞海灣國家遷移。而後在1980年代中期,東亞和東南亞新興工業化經濟體對勞動力的強勁需求又帶來了另一波人口遷移。這種趨勢一直持續到1990年代,並在亞洲金融危機後穩定下來。實際上,移工已成為某些經濟體的結構特徵。

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跨境移民趨勢

區域內移民仍是亞洲人口一個重要的特徵,根據2017年的數據,亞洲移民中有33.4%留在該區域內,而所有遷移至亞洲的移民中,有71.3%來自該區域內(圖1)。若按次區域劃分,存在顯著差異。

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大多數來自太平洋的移民傾向於遷移到亞洲的其他區域,來自南亞的移民則傾向移出亞洲,而來自大洋洲的人則在大洋洲區域內移動(圖2)2

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移工對於目的地的選擇除了距離之外,還取決於舒適度及適應新語言和文化的能力。瀚亞印尼的投資長Ari Pitoyo指出,由於這些因素,馬來西亞仍是印尼移工的主要目的地。

近年來亞洲移工的趨勢轉變:第一,在整個地區,高素質移工的流動增加:早期的移工大多是從事一級產業的低技能工人;第二,移工的來源國轉變:越南、柬埔寨和緬甸成為新的移工來源國;最後一項關鍵轉變是女性移工的比例高於男性移工。

全球連結的提高也使移工得以與家人保持聯繫,除了可以在特定的假期返回家鄉,更重要的是,薪資匯回移工的家庭變得更加方便。跨國連結的加深實際上穩定了許多移工家庭。

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互惠互利

移工的薪資匯回是發展中國家的重要收入來源。多年來,流入亞洲的資金也穩定增長。亞洲開發銀行在2017年的數據顯示,亞洲內部匯款是第二大資金流入來源,佔27.7%。中東以30.9%位居榜首,而北美則以25.3%位居第三。

亞洲開發銀行在同一份報告中特別指出,薪資匯回流入量最大的三個國家是印度、中華民國和菲律賓,三國匯往亞洲的金額佔60.8%。這些匯款的重要性不可低估,例如:菲律賓的匯款流入相當於GDP的10.5%,而越南則為6.3%。

除了薪資匯回的優點外,麥肯錫的研究也指出,無論移工的技能高低,都可以提升勞力輸入國的生產力,同時也可以提升勞力輸出國的發展程度。移民填補了勞力輸入國的勞動力短缺,解決了低生育率的問題,成為許多已開發國家人口增長的主要驅動力。另一方面,人口流動是許多人口稠密國家的生命線,這些國家的年輕人得以在其他國家找到體面的工作,否則他們可能會因失業而引起社會動盪並帶來其他社會問題。

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千禧彩票网

了充分釋放移工效益,勞力輸入國必須有一項正式的國家移工政策,該政策應考慮移工的整體福利,不僅僅是就業方面。許多移工政策仍然對移工的配額和資格具限制。

在移工議題上,亞洲已朝著區域政策合作的方向邁進。在2003年,由10個國家所啟動的科倫坡進程是個區域性的協商會議,為管理跨國就業提出了建議。2008年的阿布達比對話將科倫坡進程國家與海灣合作委員會的成員國召集在一起,為新思想和新活動舉行論壇,對於管理橫跨亞洲暫時性聘僱移工的框架發展具有幫助。

同時,東協國家已採取進一步的措施,通過相互承認協定(MRA)來促進移工流動。但是這些協議僅涵蓋某些專門技術的職業(如:工程,護理,建築,醫學等)。國際勞工組織(International Labour Organization)的一項研究發現,這種現有的MRA僅佔該地區勞動力的1.5%,而在東協內部的移工中,約有87%是低技術勞工3。東協在促進低技能移工的流動上並沒有太多的作為,然而這個部分可能才是對區域發展有最大的影響力。 瀚亞馬來西亞的投資長 Doreen Choo表示,馬來西亞低技術移工中約有三分之一從事製造業,而農業則吸收了四分之一的移工。

展望未來,亞洲預期的人口增長、收入和人口的差異將繼續支持區域內勞動力的遷移。到2030年,東亞國家將需要2.75億15至64歲的人口,以維持穩定的勞動年齡比4。如果更多的亞洲國家採取措施改善勞動市場資訊並將MRA擴大到技術水平較低的移工,則該地區的經濟增長將進一步提高。

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