千禧彩票网連結:仍有成長的空間

亞洲區域跨境資產的持有在亞洲地區的投資組合只佔兩成。雖然亞洲地區的金融整合在這幾年持續增長,卻仍普遍受到多元金融部門層級發展的限制。當亞洲在追求更高的金融連結以及享受其所帶來的潛在利益時,需要去強化政策的調節以及監管的架構。

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根據研究,金融整合是貿易與距離的一項方程式1。資本與金融服務的跨境移動應該隨著國家間貿易的增長而提高,且服務據點會越來越接近。然而這樣的現象並沒有完全的在亞洲地區實現。

微弱的連結

亞洲的金融整合相較於貿易整合更落後:2003年到2016年間,在區域內有超過五成的貿易流動,但區域內組合投資只佔了兩成2,銀行團貸款也只有三成二3。另一方面,外國直接投資的情況較佳,區域內直接投資大約佔了亞洲直接投資的五成。

儘管這幾年已建立許多加速金融連結的新措施,但亞洲區域的金融整合仍然維持在低檔。舉《東協全面投資協定》為例,此協定目標在為國內與國際投資者建立一個自由、開放、透明和整合的投資體系。其它的新措施包含東協交易平台、東協資本論壇、亞洲債券市場倡議和亞洲債券基金倡議。

在2017年,亞洲的跨境資產持有成長到17兆美金,其中區域內債券投資比例相較於2012年為高,而銀行存款與外國直接投資的比較由下圖可見之:

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雖然亞洲投資人持有區域內資產的比重平均地增加,持有亞洲區域外資產仍是主流。2017年亞洲的跨境股權資產的持有,來自亞洲投資人的只有18%、而其在跨境債權資產中則只有16%。多數的亞洲區域內投資來自於香港、新加坡和日本,在股權與債權資產中佔了八成。這些投資目標的主要是中國、日本和澳大利亞,亞洲境內債券投資的目標國家還有新加坡和南韓。

亞洲持有較多的區域外資產是因為這幾年來帳務的盈餘,累積了相當大量的美國資產4。亞洲對區域內投資的冷感部分是因為亞洲地區存在許多低度發展的金融市場。而且,雖然日本和中國目前已是亞洲兩大股權市場,但後者市場較難以進入,中國在近期才逐漸開放資本市場。甚至,中國公司透明度低和避險工具的取得不易也造成亞洲投資人對中國的投資較為怯場。

雖然多元的經濟發展和成長有助於調和貿易的生態系與供應鏈網絡,但這樣的概念在金融整合是行不通的。儘管在亞洲各式經濟體中資本市場已經顯著擴展,某些市場仍然存在規模狹小、流動性不足、高交易成本和限縮的投資者基礎等問題。例如,股票市場的國內公司資本化在香港是GDP的10餘倍,但是在越南只佔了54%。

若由另外一項經濟發展的領導指標──國內信用佔私部門信用比──來觀察,此比例在2018年的印尼是GDP的39%,但全球平均是129%。同時,亞洲的金融部門高度集中在銀行部門,非銀行的金融機構資產,相較於美國的154%,泰國只佔了GDP的49%5

在區域內的某些經濟體中存在許多低度發展的金融部門,這些經濟體不管是在金融工具的範圍、精細程度和金融市場的深度都不足以滿足存款者多角化避險的需求,因此也較無法吸引亞洲區內外國的直接投資。

向前邁進

金融整合協助金融部門發展,同時提高效率和降低成本。金融整合也可以藉由金融工具的發展來幫助不同產業部門避險,最終促進區域內貿易與投資的擴展。深入、具流動性和效率的資本市場也可以引導亞洲地區龐大的存款挹注到具有生產力的投資項目中、並且使經濟發展的資金需求更多元。

隨著亞洲推進其各種整合的措施以及金融市場隨著經濟增長而發展,預期將會出現更進一步的金融整合。瀚亞越南的執行長兼資訊長Ngo The Trieu相信越南對於全球公司治理規範的接受以及越南國營企業更進一步的改革將會使越南的股票市場對區域與國際投資者來說更有吸引力。

當亞洲追求更進一步的金融連結的同時,也需要去平衡收益、金融商品穩定性的風險與金融危機的蔓延。亞洲內部各國的景氣循環可能會因為整合而彼此相連,一旦衝擊發生,就會快速的從一個國家傳導到另一個國家。因此,亞洲必須要在規範、監理和危機處理的架構上有更緊密的協調。

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